North Korea is in trouble again. And though this is not news to most people who follow the reclusive country, there are a few factors that make this situation uniquely alarming. Some believe North Korea is headed into another great famine.

Failed Five Year Plan

Five years since taking power, in May 2016, Kim Jong Un laid out a five year plan to create economic independence for North Korea. This plan came on the heels of the UN tightening sanctions in March following the North’s recent nuclear tests and focused largely on energy including the need to improve their electricity supply with higher coal output and develop domestic sources of energy, including nuclear power.

Kim Jong Un charged that the country must “solve the energy problem and place the basic industry section on the right track, and increase agricultural and light industry production to definitely improve the lives of the people.”

At a Worker’s Party meeting this January, Kim confessed that the five year plan “immensely underachieved in almost all sectors.” He laid out yet another plan to grow every industry, but like the former failed plan, it probably has no teeth.

Impact of COVID-19

Though Kim Jong Un’s claims of the entire nation being free of COVID-19 can’t be confirmed, the global pandemic has not left North Korea’s already fragile economy unscathed. Border closures have plummeted trade to an estimated 80-percent drop in the first 11 months of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019, according to Song Jaeguk, an analyst at the IBK Economic Research Institute in Seoul. And the suspension of international flights due to COVID-19 have completely erased the contribution of tourism revenue to the North Korean economy.

Radio Free Asia (RFA) reported in December 2020 that “the entire public transportation system across the country has been suspended since the beginning of this month under the instruction of the central government to prevent COVID-19 infections.” This was a surprising move by a country claiming to be free of the Coronavirus.

Typhoon & Flood Damage

Three powerful typhoons, Maysak and Haishen made landfall on the Korean peninsula within two weeks last September, delivering heavy rain and widespread flooding to parts of both North and South Korea. 

38 North’s damage assessment from 2020’s typhoon season is that “while weather conditions were particularly dire this year, there is currently no evidence, based on currently available information, that the overall damage was unprecedented”.

Collective impact

On their own, the challenges confronting North Korea listed above may seem unfortunately normal for the hermit kingdom. However, with the confluence of tightened UN sanctions, COVID-19 and flood damage, many estimate that North Korea is facing the most challenging situation since the great famine of the 1990s.

Kim Jong Un’s recent pledge to enhance North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and missile program will continue to increase UN scrutiny and consequences. His rejection of South Korea’s olive branch in the form of pandemic relief will likely bring the country further down their economic spiral as the spread of COVID-19 worsens this winter.

God have mercy

North Korean winters are already long and brutally cold. Food shortages are imminent given decimated trade volume and recent typhoons and flood damage. While Kim Jong Un celebrates his new promotion, we can’t help but to worry about the potential of another North Korean famine this winter.

In what is one of the bleakest periods of recent North Korean history, we seek out God’s mercy for Kim Jong Un. Lord, please open his eyes and humble him before your glory, that he may turn from his ways. Please hear the prayers of the saints in North Korea and have mercy on them. Oh Lord, would you relent from disaster so that the world may know of who you are. Amen.